You might be interested in this 80,000 Hours podcast about the extreme moral uncertainty created by our complex world, and the (tounge-in-cheek) “moral case against ever leaving the house”. I agree that it can be dizzying to think about how our deep uncertainty about the future (which philosopher Hillary Greaves calls “moral cluelessness”) seems to potentially undermine all our efforts—not just our altruistic endeavors, but what we seek to accomplish in our jobs, in our personal relationships, etc.
But the logic of expected value maximization tells us that we ought to go forth regardless, and make an effort according to our best judgement even in a shifting landscape that threatens to sometimes reverse the effect of our actions. To me, this embrace of uncertainty (as opposed to the obsession with blame, credit, and false guarantees that cloud much moral thinking) is a core part of what it means to be an effective altruist and a rationalist. Indeed, I think the embrace of uncertainty is a big part of the “edge” that allows effective-altruist donations to do such incredible amounts of good on average.
You might be interested in this 80,000 Hours podcast about the extreme moral uncertainty created by our complex world, and the (tounge-in-cheek) “moral case against ever leaving the house”. I agree that it can be dizzying to think about how our deep uncertainty about the future (which philosopher Hillary Greaves calls “moral cluelessness”) seems to potentially undermine all our efforts—not just our altruistic endeavors, but what we seek to accomplish in our jobs, in our personal relationships, etc.
But the logic of expected value maximization tells us that we ought to go forth regardless, and make an effort according to our best judgement even in a shifting landscape that threatens to sometimes reverse the effect of our actions. To me, this embrace of uncertainty (as opposed to the obsession with blame, credit, and false guarantees that cloud much moral thinking) is a core part of what it means to be an effective altruist and a rationalist. Indeed, I think the embrace of uncertainty is a big part of the “edge” that allows effective-altruist donations to do such incredible amounts of good on average.
Here is the EA Forum tag page for “Moral Uncertainty”, which collects a bunch of thoughtful posts on the subject you might be interested in.
wonderful—thanks so much for the references! “moral case against leaving the house” is a nice example to have in the back pocket :)