I think this is a good post, much needed in this community given the dominating perspective I see when approaching China which seems to me to mostly see them as a similar entity to the USSR as an adversary, when from my reading on China, this model seems to fit incredibly poorly.
However, I do think it is worth noting that expansionism does often beget expansionism, and to say that China is not expansionist is somewhat misleading. The Taiwan situation is relatively unique, but it is difficult for me to model what happens after China reunifies with Taiwan (which will happen eventually, that is not what I would prefer nor what the majority of Taiwanese people would prefer, but it will happen and everyone should just be pricing this in as best they can).
Will China then turn to start attempting to annex Mongolia? Parts of Outer Manchuria currently owned by Russia? Parts of Japanese island chains? I think on these possibilities I’m at like 30%, 70% and 40% respectively.
Compare to America
But, of course, one needs to keep that in perspective with American behavior and how that appears to outsiders. Perhaps within America their current behavior is seen as strange and erratic, though not fundamentally destabilizing or cause to question the legitimacy/supremacy of their system of government. If the “system of government” we are thinking about is Liberal Democracy writ large than I agree that it is not a fundamental indictment of Liberal Democracy. However the system of government is not “Liberal Democracy writ large” it is the specific constitutional arrangement that the United States operates under, since that is what governs the country.
That system has led to outcomes that seem fundamentally at odds with principles of self-determination that I consider fundamental to Liberal Democracy (saber-rattling over Greenland comes to mind—perhaps many Americans see this as mostly a joke, but I certainly do not). But their system is, in fact, even more extreme than this:
The UK is not predominantly federalist, but even they acknowledge the right of Scotland or Northern Ireland to leave if they wanted to leave, and have held referendums on that matter. In the US such state-level self-determination is considered illegal outright. This, to me, seems to conflict with the principles of self-determination that are core to acting as Liberals on the geopolitical stage.
Is China Expansionist? Maybe.
I think this is a good post, much needed in this community given the dominating perspective I see when approaching China which seems to me to mostly see them as a similar entity to the USSR as an adversary, when from my reading on China, this model seems to fit incredibly poorly.
However, I do think it is worth noting that expansionism does often beget expansionism, and to say that China is not expansionist is somewhat misleading. The Taiwan situation is relatively unique, but it is difficult for me to model what happens after China reunifies with Taiwan (which will happen eventually, that is not what I would prefer nor what the majority of Taiwanese people would prefer, but it will happen and everyone should just be pricing this in as best they can).
Will China then turn to start attempting to annex Mongolia? Parts of Outer Manchuria currently owned by Russia? Parts of Japanese island chains? I think on these possibilities I’m at like 30%, 70% and 40% respectively.
Compare to America
But, of course, one needs to keep that in perspective with American behavior and how that appears to outsiders. Perhaps within America their current behavior is seen as strange and erratic, though not fundamentally destabilizing or cause to question the legitimacy/supremacy of their system of government. If the “system of government” we are thinking about is Liberal Democracy writ large than I agree that it is not a fundamental indictment of Liberal Democracy. However the system of government is not “Liberal Democracy writ large” it is the specific constitutional arrangement that the United States operates under, since that is what governs the country.
That system has led to outcomes that seem fundamentally at odds with principles of self-determination that I consider fundamental to Liberal Democracy (saber-rattling over Greenland comes to mind—perhaps many Americans see this as mostly a joke, but I certainly do not). But their system is, in fact, even more extreme than this:
The UK is not predominantly federalist, but even they acknowledge the right of Scotland or Northern Ireland to leave if they wanted to leave, and have held referendums on that matter. In the US such state-level self-determination is considered illegal outright. This, to me, seems to conflict with the principles of self-determination that are core to acting as Liberals on the geopolitical stage.