You’re right, of course: I’d heard the story without working out the solution myself, and my mind leapt to the “obvious” solution.
I suspect the inverse error gets made quite a lot when analyzing failure modes in situations where failure renders an instance unavailable for further analysis.
s/inverse error/identical error? I’m having trouble imagining the inverse error, unless it’s leaning too hard on boolean, non-probabilistic anthropic reasoning and ignoring real damage distributions.
I meant the error that was (sloppily phrased) the inverse of “look at the survivors and realize that the damage they’ve received isn’t necessarily representative of the damage the non-survivors received”. So, yes, the identical error to the one we’ve been discussing all along.
You’re right, of course: I’d heard the story without working out the solution myself, and my mind leapt to the “obvious” solution.
s/inverse error/identical error? I’m having trouble imagining the inverse error, unless it’s leaning too hard on boolean, non-probabilistic anthropic reasoning and ignoring real damage distributions.
I meant the error that was (sloppily phrased) the inverse of “look at the survivors and realize that the damage they’ve received isn’t necessarily representative of the damage the non-survivors received”. So, yes, the identical error to the one we’ve been discussing all along.