The chance of my being a better predictor is increasing in the number of women I have talked to about cryonics
Nope. By increasing your sample size you are getting your sample mean and so your estimate of the true mean closer to the population mean. But you can never get better than the population mean in your forecast. Someone who knows how the specifics of a particular data point differ from the average/​expected value is quite likely to produce a better forecast.
Nope. By increasing your sample size you are getting your sample mean and so your estimate of the true mean closer to the population mean. But you can never get better than the population mean in your forecast. Someone who knows how the specifics of a particular data point differ from the average/​expected value is quite likely to produce a better forecast.