Care to at least take a stab at outlining what should be in it? Nate Silver’s book has some discussion of prediction markets, including
how prediction markets arise from Bayesian thinking
the efficient market hypothesis in various strengths
limitations of prediction markets (e.g. liquidity issues, manipulations, transaction costs)
markets and irrationality (“irrational exuberance”)
What else should such a sequence cover?
Can you point to some examples of those “recent arguments” you’ve seen?
I’ve mentioned prediction markets to a few people in the context of learning how to make well calibrated forecasts, and the reaction is generally “ugh, gambling! no way!”.
I came here looking for some information on implementing a prediction market at work. I happen to already have Nate’s book, so I’ll have to check that out. Thanks!
For a while now I’ve also taken part in the Good Judgment Project prediction contests, since Season 2 as a “super-forecaster”. I’ve scaled back my involvement this year for various reasons. But I do know that they’re working on a commercial offering; depending on what you’re looking to do, this may or may not be relevant to your efforts...
Care to at least take a stab at outlining what should be in it? Nate Silver’s book has some discussion of prediction markets, including
how prediction markets arise from Bayesian thinking
the efficient market hypothesis in various strengths
limitations of prediction markets (e.g. liquidity issues, manipulations, transaction costs)
markets and irrationality (“irrational exuberance”)
What else should such a sequence cover?
Can you point to some examples of those “recent arguments” you’ve seen?
I’ve mentioned prediction markets to a few people in the context of learning how to make well calibrated forecasts, and the reaction is generally “ugh, gambling! no way!”.
I came here looking for some information on implementing a prediction market at work. I happen to already have Nate’s book, so I’ll have to check that out. Thanks!
Cool! Where do you work?
For a while now I’ve also taken part in the Good Judgment Project prediction contests, since Season 2 as a “super-forecaster”. I’ve scaled back my involvement this year for various reasons. But I do know that they’re working on a commercial offering; depending on what you’re looking to do, this may or may not be relevant to your efforts...