Shutting up and multiplying causes naive decision theorists to pay the mugger, just as naive decision-theoretic hitchhikers get left in the desert by drivers who can see that they won’t repay their help, and Omega can offer enormous amounts to naive decision theorists in Newcomb’s Problem and never have to pay.
Choosing a strategy, if done properly, refuses to pay the mugger, as it refuses all other attempts at blackmail. Come to think of it, as Eliezer has argued somewhere (perhaps in the context of Roko’s basilisk) that the correct way to handle blackmail is to have the invariant strategy of not paying, and Pascal’s Mugging is an example of blackmail, the PM conundrum he posed in 2007 should be easily solved by his current self.
Folk wisdom knows this. “Never play poker with strangers.” “Never take a strange bet from a stranger.” Damon Runyon gave a more colourful version.
Shutting up and multiplying causes naive decision theorists to pay the mugger, just as naive decision-theoretic hitchhikers get left in the desert by drivers who can see that they won’t repay their help, and Omega can offer enormous amounts to naive decision theorists in Newcomb’s Problem and never have to pay.
Choosing a strategy, if done properly, refuses to pay the mugger, as it refuses all other attempts at blackmail. Come to think of it, as Eliezer has argued somewhere (perhaps in the context of Roko’s basilisk) that the correct way to handle blackmail is to have the invariant strategy of not paying, and Pascal’s Mugging is an example of blackmail, the PM conundrum he posed in 2007 should be easily solved by his current self.
Folk wisdom knows this. “Never play poker with strangers.” “Never take a strange bet from a stranger.” Damon Runyon gave a more colourful version.