I don’t see anything in the linked survey about a consensus view on total existential risk probability from AGI. The survey asked researchers to compare between different existential catastrophe scenarios, not about their total x-risk probability, and surely not about the probability of x-risk if AGI were developed now without further alignment research.
We asked researchers to estimate the probability of five AI risk scenarios, conditional on an existential catastrophe due to AI having occurred. There was also a catch-all “other scenarios” option.
Most of this community’s discussion about existential risk from AI focuses on scenarios involving one or more powerful, misaligned AI systems that take control of the future. This kind of concern is articulated most prominently in “Superintelligence” and “What failure looks like”, corresponding to three scenarios in our survey (the “Superintelligence” scenario, part 1 and part 2 of “What failure looks like”). The median respondent’s total (conditional) probability on these three scenarios was 50%, suggesting that this kind of concern about AI risk is still prevalent, but far from the only kind of risk that researchers are concerned about today.
This isn’t true. [ETA: I linked the wrong survey before.]
I don’t see anything in the linked survey about a consensus view on total existential risk probability from AGI. The survey asked researchers to compare between different existential catastrophe scenarios, not about their total x-risk probability, and surely not about the probability of x-risk if AGI were developed now without further alignment research.
Maybe Carl meant to link this one
You’re right, my link was wrong, that one is a fine link.
You’re right, I linked the wrong survey!