The intention of my comment was to find what the hope for EYs FAI goals are based on here. I was trying to make the point with the zero, zilch idea… that the faith in EY making FAI is essentially blind faith.
I am not sure who here has faith in EY making FAI. In fact, I don’t even recall EY claiming a high probability of such a success.
Agreed. As I recall, EY posted at one point that prior to thinking about existential risks and FAI, his conception of an adequate life goal was moving the Singularity up an hour. Sure doesn’t sound like he anticipates single-handedly making an FAI.
At best, he will make major progress toward a framework for friendliness. And in that aspect he is rather a specialist.
Agreed. I don’t know anyone at SIAI or FHI so absurdly overconfident as to expect to avert existential risk that would otherwise be fatal. The relevant question is whether their efforts, or supporting efforts, do more to reduce risk than alternative uses of their time or that of supporters.
I am not sure who here has faith in EY making FAI. In fact, I don’t even recall EY claiming a high probability of such a success.
Agreed. As I recall, EY posted at one point that prior to thinking about existential risks and FAI, his conception of an adequate life goal was moving the Singularity up an hour. Sure doesn’t sound like he anticipates single-handedly making an FAI.
At best, he will make major progress toward a framework for friendliness. And in that aspect he is rather a specialist.
Agreed. I don’t know anyone at SIAI or FHI so absurdly overconfident as to expect to avert existential risk that would otherwise be fatal. The relevant question is whether their efforts, or supporting efforts, do more to reduce risk than alternative uses of their time or that of supporters.