Hmm. Since most of my probability mass is in <5 years range, it seems this is just going to mislead people into not being at all helpful? Why not do this but for the years 2024, 2026, 2028?
What makes you privilege the years you chose to mention?
These days have particular significance in my AGI timelines ranking and I think are a good default spread based on community opinion. However, there is no reason you shouldn’t choose alternate years!
Hmm. Since most of my probability mass is in <5 years range, it seems this is just going to mislead people into not being at all helpful? Why not do this but for the years 2024, 2026, 2028? What makes you privilege the years you chose to mention?
These days have particular significance in my AGI timelines ranking and I think are a good default spread based on community opinion. However, there is no reason you shouldn’t choose alternate years!