Curated! I think that this post is one of the best attempts I’ve seen at concisely summarizing… the problem, as it were, in a way that highlights the important parts, while remaining accessible to an educated lay-audience. The (modern) examples scattered throughout were effective, in particular the use of Golden Gate Claude as an example of the difficulty of making AIs believe false things was quite good.
I agree with Ryan that the claim re: speed of AI reaching superhuman capabilities is somewhat overstated. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem load-bearing for the argument; I don’t feel that much more hopeful if we have 2-5 years to use/study/work with AI systems that are only slightly-superhuman at R&D (or some similar target). You could write an entire book about why this wouldn’t be enough. (The sequences do cover a lot of the reasons.)
Curated! I think that this post is one of the best attempts I’ve seen at concisely summarizing… the problem, as it were, in a way that highlights the important parts, while remaining accessible to an educated lay-audience. The (modern) examples scattered throughout were effective, in particular the use of Golden Gate Claude as an example of the difficulty of making AIs believe false things was quite good.
I agree with Ryan that the claim re: speed of AI reaching superhuman capabilities is somewhat overstated. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem load-bearing for the argument; I don’t feel that much more hopeful if we have 2-5 years to use/study/work with AI systems that are only slightly-superhuman at R&D (or some similar target). You could write an entire book about why this wouldn’t be enough. (The sequences do cover a lot of the reasons.)