as a standalone piece … estimating p(doom) > 90 … without an argument is too aggressive
The alternative of claiming some other estimate (by people who actually estimate p(doom) > 90) would be dishonest, and the alternative of only ever giving book-length arguments until the position is more popular opposes lightness (as a matter of social epistemic norms), makes it more difficult for others to notice the fact that someone is actually making such estimates.
The alternative of claiming some other estimate (by people who actually estimate p(doom) > 90) would be dishonest, and the alternative of only ever giving book-length arguments until the position is more popular opposes lightness (as a matter of social epistemic norms), makes it more difficult for others to notice the fact that someone is actually making such estimates.