Of the clever solutions you invented and tested within the survivable regime, 2/3rds of them survive the 6 changes you didn’t see coming, 1/3rd fail. Now you’re dead.
It seems unreasonable to conclude we’re now dead, if 2/3rds of our solutions survived the 6 changes we didn’t see coming.
The success of a single solution should ideally be more of a sufficient condition for success, rather than a necessary condition. (Note this is plausible depending on the nature of the “solutions”. Consider a simple “monitors for bad thoughts” model. If even a single monitor flags bad thoughts, we can instantly pull the plug and evaluate. A malicious AI has to bypass every single monitor to execute malice. If a single monitor works consistently and reliably, that ends up being a sufficient condition for overall prevention of malice.)
If you’re doing this right, your solutions should have a lot of redundancy and uncorrelated failure modes. 2/3rds of them working should ideally be plenty.
[Edit: I notice people disagreevoting this. I’m very interested to learn why you disagree, either in this comment thread or via private message.]
It seems unreasonable to conclude we’re now dead, if 2/3rds of our solutions survived the 6 changes we didn’t see coming.
The success of a single solution should ideally be more of a sufficient condition for success, rather than a necessary condition. (Note this is plausible depending on the nature of the “solutions”. Consider a simple “monitors for bad thoughts” model. If even a single monitor flags bad thoughts, we can instantly pull the plug and evaluate. A malicious AI has to bypass every single monitor to execute malice. If a single monitor works consistently and reliably, that ends up being a sufficient condition for overall prevention of malice.)
If you’re doing this right, your solutions should have a lot of redundancy and uncorrelated failure modes. 2/3rds of them working should ideally be plenty.
[Edit: I notice people disagreevoting this. I’m very interested to learn why you disagree, either in this comment thread or via private message.]