I think if we relax the constraint on bets between hardline doomers and hardline accelerationists we can get more interesting and productive dynamics.
Instead of full on extinction we could bet on extinction proxies:
Rouge Independent AI by 2030? AI governed cults by 2035? Deaths by AI per 100,000 people exceeds 0.001 by 2050
These are bets I’m willing to actually take someone up on, since I think each of these will come true.
I think if we relax the constraint on bets between hardline doomers and hardline accelerationists we can get more interesting and productive dynamics.
Instead of full on extinction we could bet on extinction proxies:
Rouge Independent AI by 2030? AI governed cults by 2035? Deaths by AI per 100,000 people exceeds 0.001 by 2050
These are bets I’m willing to actually take someone up on, since I think each of these will come true.