Is Twitter literally worse than flipping a coin, or just worse than… someone following a non-Twitter crowd?
I was comparing it to base-rate forecasting. Twitter leads people to over-update on evidence that isn’t actually very strong, making their predictions worse by moving their probabilities too far from the base rates.
Is Twitter literally worse than flipping a coin, or just worse than… someone following a non-Twitter crowd?
I was comparing it to base-rate forecasting. Twitter leads people to over-update on evidence that isn’t actually very strong, making their predictions worse by moving their probabilities too far from the base rates.