Great work! It seems like this could enable lots of useful applications. One thing in particular that I’m excited about is how this can be used to make forecasting more decision-relevant. For example, one type of application that comes to mind in particular is a conditional prediction market where conditions are continuous rather than discrete (eg. “what is GDP next year if interest rate is set to r?”, “what is Sierra Leone’s GDP in ten years if bednet spending is x?”).
Yea; I think mixtures of continuous + discrete conditionals should open up a bunch of options. I imagine it’s hard to grok all of these without using it a bit, so I do look forward to publishing it more openly and encouraging people to “mess around”.
I think the space of options is quite massive, though the technical and academic challenges massive as well.
Great work! It seems like this could enable lots of useful applications. One thing in particular that I’m excited about is how this can be used to make forecasting more decision-relevant. For example, one type of application that comes to mind in particular is a conditional prediction market where conditions are continuous rather than discrete (eg. “what is GDP next year if interest rate is set to r?”, “what is Sierra Leone’s GDP in ten years if bednet spending is x?”).
Thanks!
Yea; I think mixtures of continuous + discrete conditionals should open up a bunch of options. I imagine it’s hard to grok all of these without using it a bit, so I do look forward to publishing it more openly and encouraging people to “mess around”.
I think the space of options is quite massive, though the technical and academic challenges massive as well.
Here’s a link to a staging version, though one without explanation. The editor uses vim, so you need to type “i” to begin adding text.
https://5f3973242bc7c000071f50a7--distracted-mirzakhani-b102f4.netlify.app/dist-builder