No, you don’t need update you assumption. If clever arguer choose to argue about what box is contained a diamond—and not bet his own money on that..… It is sure sign that he have absolutely no idea about this, so all his speeches also just can’t contain a usefull information, only total bullshit. It is like updating your beliefs about future fliping a coin. Coin just don’t contain information about future- therefore useless for predicting. Also with clever arguer.
I try put it in other words. Arguer is clever. He doesn’t sure what box is containing a diamond- i.e. he believe in 50⁄50. Else- he just bouth box, that he think contain diamond. He has a more information about box, then you. So, how you can think that you have more certain data, that one box contain a diamond -than arguer, if you have less information than he?
Also, I wonder—if somebody hired two clever arguers, one of them will persuaded one person, that diamond in the left box, and the other will argue to second person that diamond in the right box. And clever arguers is so good, that they victims almost sure in that… Isn’t it almost as creating new diamond out of air ?
No, you don’t need update you assumption. If clever arguer choose to argue about what box is contained a diamond—and not bet his own money on that..… It is sure sign that he have absolutely no idea about this, so all his speeches also just can’t contain a usefull information, only total bullshit. It is like updating your beliefs about future fliping a coin. Coin just don’t contain information about future- therefore useless for predicting. Also with clever arguer.
I try put it in other words. Arguer is clever. He doesn’t sure what box is containing a diamond- i.e. he believe in 50⁄50. Else- he just bouth box, that he think contain diamond. He has a more information about box, then you. So, how you can think that you have more certain data, that one box contain a diamond -than arguer, if you have less information than he?
Also, I wonder—if somebody hired two clever arguers, one of them will persuaded one person, that diamond in the left box, and the other will argue to second person that diamond in the right box. And clever arguers is so good, that they victims almost sure in that… Isn’t it almost as creating new diamond out of air ?