It seems to me that having some contrarian views is a necessity, despite the fact that most contrarian views are wrong. “Not every change is an improvement, but every improvement is a change.” As such I’d recommend going meta, teaching other people the skills to recognize correct contrarian arguments. This of course will synergize with recognizing whether your own views are probable or suspect, as well as with convincing others to accept your contrarian views.
Determine levels of expertise in the subject. Not a binary distinction between “expert” and “non-expert” that would put nutritionists, theologians, and futurists in the same category as physicists, materials scientists, and engineers.
1a. The main determinants would be how easy it is to test things, and how much testing has been done.
1b. What’s the level of consensus? I’d say less than 90% consensus is suspicious; probably indicative of a difficult profession (the experts cannot give definitive well-tested answers).
What’s the experts’ reaction to the contrarian view? Do the experts have good reason for rejecting the view, or do they become converts upon hearing it?
What’s the epistemic basis of the views? Are we talking about empirical tests, logical deduction, educated guesses, or wild speculation?
Look for conflicts of interest. Don’t exclude your own. Look for monetary interests, political interests, moral/values interests, emotional interests, aesthetic interests. Subjects like climate change and economic policy are so interest-laden that besides the difficulties in testing it becomes difficult to find honest, actual experts. Conversely, some ideas are accepted despite interests; dentists advise you against sugar despite their monetary interests, and quantum mechanics is accepted despite being unintuitive.
Consider how you’d convince an honest, intelligent, well-educated expert to accept your contrarian view. If you don’t think you can, odds are you don’t have cause to believe it yourself.
Test point 5. Remember, you’re making a difference in the world, so don’t make excuses.
It seems to me that having some contrarian views is a necessity, despite the fact that most contrarian views are wrong. “Not every change is an improvement, but every improvement is a change.” As such I’d recommend going meta, teaching other people the skills to recognize correct contrarian arguments. This of course will synergize with recognizing whether your own views are probable or suspect, as well as with convincing others to accept your contrarian views.
Determine levels of expertise in the subject. Not a binary distinction between “expert” and “non-expert” that would put nutritionists, theologians, and futurists in the same category as physicists, materials scientists, and engineers. 1a. The main determinants would be how easy it is to test things, and how much testing has been done. 1b. What’s the level of consensus? I’d say less than 90% consensus is suspicious; probably indicative of a difficult profession (the experts cannot give definitive well-tested answers).
What’s the experts’ reaction to the contrarian view? Do the experts have good reason for rejecting the view, or do they become converts upon hearing it?
What’s the epistemic basis of the views? Are we talking about empirical tests, logical deduction, educated guesses, or wild speculation?
Look for conflicts of interest. Don’t exclude your own. Look for monetary interests, political interests, moral/values interests, emotional interests, aesthetic interests. Subjects like climate change and economic policy are so interest-laden that besides the difficulties in testing it becomes difficult to find honest, actual experts. Conversely, some ideas are accepted despite interests; dentists advise you against sugar despite their monetary interests, and quantum mechanics is accepted despite being unintuitive.
Consider how you’d convince an honest, intelligent, well-educated expert to accept your contrarian view. If you don’t think you can, odds are you don’t have cause to believe it yourself.
Test point 5. Remember, you’re making a difference in the world, so don’t make excuses.