Since you have taken the time to make a comment on this website I presume you get some pleasure from thinking about biases. The next time you are on an airplane perhaps you would find it interesting to work through how you should respond if the plane starts to burn.
Interestingly enough there is some evidence—or at least assertions by people who’ve studied this sort of thing—that doing this sort of problem solving ahead of time tends to reduce the paralysis.
When you get on a plane, go into a restaurant, when you’re wandering down the street or when you go someplace new think about a few common emergencies and just think about how you might respond to them.
Yes, you’re right. In fact, I did think about this situation. I think the best strategy is to enter the brace position recommended in the safety guide and to stay still, while gathering as much information as position and obeying the any person who takes on a leadership role. This sort of reasoning can be useful because it is fun to think about, because it makes for interesting conversation, or because it might reveal an abstract principle that is useful somewhere else. My point is to demonstrate a VOI calculation and to show that although this behavior seems irrational on its own, in the broader context the strategy of being completely unprepared for disaster is a good one. Still, the fact that people act in this particular maladaptive way is interesting, and so I got something out of your quote.
“When two planes collided just above a runway in Tenerife in 1977, a man was stuck, with his wife, in a plane that was slowly being engulfed in flames. He remembered making a special note of the exits, grabbed his wife’s hand, and ran towards one of them. As it happened, he didn’t need to use it, since a portion of the plane had been sheared away. He jumped out, along with his wife and the few people who survived. Many more people should have made it out. Fleeing survivors ran past living, uninjured people who sat in seats literally watching for the minute it took for the flames to reach them.”—http://io9.com/the-frozen-calm-of-normalcy-bias-486764924
Speaking as someone who’s been trough that, I don’t think that the article gives a complete picture. Part of the problem appears to be (particularly by reports from newer generations) in such instaces is the feeling of unreality, as the only times when we tend to see such situations is when we’re sitting comfortably, so a lot of us are essentially conditioned to sit comfortably during such events.
However, this does tend to get better with some experience of such situations.
See, I thought the plane was still in the air. Now I understand that the brace position is useless. This is why “gathering as much information as possible” is part of my plan. Unfortunately, with such a preliminary plan, there’s a good chance I won’t realise this quickly enough and become one of the passive casualties. As I stated earlier, I don’t mind this.
No. Please, just no. This is the worst possible form of fighting the hypothetical. If you’re going to just say “it’s all hypothetical, who cares!” then please do everyone a favor and just don’t even bother to respond. It’s a waste of everyone’s time, and incredibly rude to everyone else who was trying to have a serious discussion with you. If you make a claim, an your reasoning is shown to be inconsistent, the correct response is never to pretend it was all just a big joke the whole time. Either own up to having made a mistake (note: having made a mistake in the past is way higher status than making a mistake now. Saying “I was wrong” is just another way to say “but now I’m right”. You will gain extra respect on this site from noticing your own mistakes as well.) or refute the arguments against your claim (or ask for clarification or things along those lines). If you can’t handle doing either of those then tap out of the conversation. But seriously, taking up everyone’s time with a counter-intuitive claim and then laughing it off when people try to engage you seriously is extremely rude and a waste of everyone’s time, including yours.
And then sometimes I’m reminded why I love this site. Only on LessWrong does a (well-founded) rant about bad form or habits actually end up accomplishing the original goal.
Since you have taken the time to make a comment on this website I presume you get some pleasure from thinking about biases. The next time you are on an airplane perhaps you would find it interesting to work through how you should respond if the plane starts to burn.
Interestingly enough there is some evidence—or at least assertions by people who’ve studied this sort of thing—that doing this sort of problem solving ahead of time tends to reduce the paralysis.
When you get on a plane, go into a restaurant, when you’re wandering down the street or when you go someplace new think about a few common emergencies and just think about how you might respond to them.
Yes, you’re right. In fact, I did think about this situation. I think the best strategy is to enter the brace position recommended in the safety guide and to stay still, while gathering as much information as position and obeying the any person who takes on a leadership role. This sort of reasoning can be useful because it is fun to think about, because it makes for interesting conversation, or because it might reveal an abstract principle that is useful somewhere else. My point is to demonstrate a VOI calculation and to show that although this behavior seems irrational on its own, in the broader context the strategy of being completely unprepared for disaster is a good one. Still, the fact that people act in this particular maladaptive way is interesting, and so I got something out of your quote.
“When two planes collided just above a runway in Tenerife in 1977, a man was stuck, with his wife, in a plane that was slowly being engulfed in flames. He remembered making a special note of the exits, grabbed his wife’s hand, and ran towards one of them. As it happened, he didn’t need to use it, since a portion of the plane had been sheared away. He jumped out, along with his wife and the few people who survived. Many more people should have made it out. Fleeing survivors ran past living, uninjured people who sat in seats literally watching for the minute it took for the flames to reach them.”—http://io9.com/the-frozen-calm-of-normalcy-bias-486764924
Speaking as someone who’s been trough that, I don’t think that the article gives a complete picture. Part of the problem appears to be (particularly by reports from newer generations) in such instaces is the feeling of unreality, as the only times when we tend to see such situations is when we’re sitting comfortably, so a lot of us are essentially conditioned to sit comfortably during such events.
However, this does tend to get better with some experience of such situations.
See, I thought the plane was still in the air. Now I understand that the brace position is useless. This is why “gathering as much information as possible” is part of my plan. Unfortunately, with such a preliminary plan, there’s a good chance I won’t realise this quickly enough and become one of the passive casualties. As I stated earlier, I don’t mind this.
As things one could not mind go, literally dying in a fire seems unlikely to be a good choice.
So does leaving a box with $1,000 in it on the table.
What’s involved here is dying in a fire in a hypothetical situation.
No. Please, just no. This is the worst possible form of fighting the hypothetical. If you’re going to just say “it’s all hypothetical, who cares!” then please do everyone a favor and just don’t even bother to respond. It’s a waste of everyone’s time, and incredibly rude to everyone else who was trying to have a serious discussion with you. If you make a claim, an your reasoning is shown to be inconsistent, the correct response is never to pretend it was all just a big joke the whole time. Either own up to having made a mistake (note: having made a mistake in the past is way higher status than making a mistake now. Saying “I was wrong” is just another way to say “but now I’m right”. You will gain extra respect on this site from noticing your own mistakes as well.) or refute the arguments against your claim (or ask for clarification or things along those lines). If you can’t handle doing either of those then tap out of the conversation. But seriously, taking up everyone’s time with a counter-intuitive claim and then laughing it off when people try to engage you seriously is extremely rude and a waste of everyone’s time, including yours.
You’re completely right. I retract my remark.
And then sometimes I’m reminded why I love this site. Only on LessWrong does a (well-founded) rant about bad form or habits actually end up accomplishing the original goal.
Only on LessWrong would I hope to never see a statement that begins, ‘Only on LessWrong’.