They enable this sole reliance on truth, without imposing virtual taxes via long lock-up periods.
I am not sure why exactly, but this sentence prompted me to imagine prediction markets differently along a particular dimension. Mostly I imagined a prediction market would wind up organizing its expertise in a way that mirrors the stock market; there are experts in particular types of commodities, in particular industries, and in particular types of transaction, etc.
The “long lock-up period” got me wondering about how to predict longer term outcomes, and the obvious answer was to break up the outcome you are really concerned with into sub-outcomes, enabling faster payouts and communicating information in a more fine-grained way in the bargain. This suggests to me that long-term and high importance outcomes will each have a family of sub-outcomes and therefore each develop into their own areas of expertise.
This looks like it doesn’t have an equivalent in current markets, which strikes me as interesting and possibly important.
I am not sure why exactly, but this sentence prompted me to imagine prediction markets differently along a particular dimension. Mostly I imagined a prediction market would wind up organizing its expertise in a way that mirrors the stock market; there are experts in particular types of commodities, in particular industries, and in particular types of transaction, etc.
The “long lock-up period” got me wondering about how to predict longer term outcomes, and the obvious answer was to break up the outcome you are really concerned with into sub-outcomes, enabling faster payouts and communicating information in a more fine-grained way in the bargain. This suggests to me that long-term and high importance outcomes will each have a family of sub-outcomes and therefore each develop into their own areas of expertise.
This looks like it doesn’t have an equivalent in current markets, which strikes me as interesting and possibly important.