Etc. I am not sure Eliezer has showcased such skills in his work. He is a brilliant independent researcher and thinker, but not a top tier strategist or leader, as far as I can tell.
Is there someone you’d point to as being a better “strategic thinker on the topic of existential risk from AGI”, as is the topic of discussion in this thread?
Good question. ARE there any A-tier strategists at all on x-risk? I’d nominate Stuart Russel. Hm. Even Yoshua Bengio is arguably also having a larger impact than Eliezer in some critical areas (policy).
For pure strategic competence, Amandeep Singh Gill.
Russell, Bengio, and Tallinn are good but not in the same league as Yudkowsky in terms of strategic thinking about AGI X-derisking. A quick search of Gill doesn’t turn up anything about existential risk but I could very easily have missed it.
Okay, I think I see the confusion. Your phrasing make it seem (to me at least) like Eliezer has had the biggest strategic impact on mitigating x-risk, and arguably also being the most competent there. I would really not be sure of that. But if we talk about strategically dissecting x-risk, without necessarily mitigating it, directly or indirectly, then maybe Eliezer would win. Still would maybe lean towards Stuart.
Gill IS having an impact that de facto mitigates x-risk, whether he uses the term or not. But he is not making people talk about it (without necessarily doing anything about it) as much as Eliezer. In that sense one could argue he isn’t really an x-risk champ.
Being a good strategist is about things like
A) Understanding and probing the opposition/problem well
B) Coordinating your resources
C) Understanding rules and principles governing the nature of the game (operational constraints)
D) Creative problem solving + tactics
E) Knowing strategic principles (e.g., seizing initiative, pre-empting the opposition, leveraging commitment vulnerabilities, etc.)
F) Managing asymmetric information (my specialty)
G) Avoiding risky overcommitment
Etc. I am not sure Eliezer has showcased such skills in his work. He is a brilliant independent researcher and thinker, but not a top tier strategist or leader, as far as I can tell.
Is there someone you’d point to as being a better “strategic thinker on the topic of existential risk from AGI”, as is the topic of discussion in this thread?
Good question. ARE there any A-tier strategists at all on x-risk? I’d nominate Stuart Russel. Hm. Even Yoshua Bengio is arguably also having a larger impact than Eliezer in some critical areas (policy).
For pure strategic competence, Amandeep Singh Gill.
Jaan Tallin. Maybe even Xue Lan.
Russell, Bengio, and Tallinn are good but not in the same league as Yudkowsky in terms of strategic thinking about AGI X-derisking. A quick search of Gill doesn’t turn up anything about existential risk but I could very easily have missed it.
Okay, I think I see the confusion. Your phrasing make it seem (to me at least) like Eliezer has had the biggest strategic impact on mitigating x-risk, and arguably also being the most competent there. I would really not be sure of that. But if we talk about strategically dissecting x-risk, without necessarily mitigating it, directly or indirectly, then maybe Eliezer would win. Still would maybe lean towards Stuart.
Gill IS having an impact that de facto mitigates x-risk, whether he uses the term or not. But he is not making people talk about it (without necessarily doing anything about it) as much as Eliezer. In that sense one could argue he isn’t really an x-risk champ.