What! I had the whole thing back to front. In that case you are completely correct and you obviously always two box.
I should have read more carefully. Still I would have preferred the presentation highlighted explicitly that it is the opposite way around than anyone would assume.
Re-reading the initial post, and especially the answer it gives, I am still not sure which problem was intended. The model solution offered seems to only make sense in the setup I thought we had. (Otherwise seeing $100 with an intent to take two boxes would not make us update towards thinking we were simulated).
Why would Omega put $0 in the second box? The problem statement specifies Omega puts $100 in both boxes if she predicts you will two-box!
What! I had the whole thing back to front. In that case you are completely correct and you obviously always two box.
I should have read more carefully. Still I would have preferred the presentation highlighted explicitly that it is the opposite way around than anyone would assume.
Re-reading the initial post, and especially the answer it gives, I am still not sure which problem was intended. The model solution offered seems to only make sense in the setup I thought we had. (Otherwise seeing $100 with an intent to take two boxes would not make us update towards thinking we were simulated).
Note to future readers: This thread was in response to my original post, in which I mistakenly switched the $0 and $100.
I also wonder whether a different problem was intended.