I think this is sort of a naive approach to this problem.
For one, startup valuations are very high variance. It’s impossible to know if you were right or lucky in the case you cite. Although you do make a plausible case you had more information than the VCs who invested.
The the real reason for modesty is the status quo for a lot of systems is at or near optimal. Especially in areas where competitive pressures are strong. Building gears level models can help. But doing that with sufficient fidelity is hard. Because even insiders often don’t understand the system with enough granularity to sufficiently model it.
I think this is sort of a naive approach to this problem.
For one, startup valuations are very high variance. It’s impossible to know if you were right or lucky in the case you cite. Although you do make a plausible case you had more information than the VCs who invested.
The the real reason for modesty is the status quo for a lot of systems is at or near optimal. Especially in areas where competitive pressures are strong. Building gears level models can help. But doing that with sufficient fidelity is hard. Because even insiders often don’t understand the system with enough granularity to sufficiently model it.