P(Talking Politics | Bad Things Happen) != P(Bad Things Happen | Talking Politics)
The left is represented by “Talking about politics is what caused Hitler...” and the right by “the consequences of talking about politics”. They are not able to be compared outright without proper admiration for lots of edge cases that make the argument probably too loose for you to use the evidence that you did.
P(Talking Politics | Bad Things Happen) != P(Bad Things Happen | Talking Politics)
The left is represented by “Talking about politics is what caused Hitler...” and the right by “the consequences of talking about politics”. They are not able to be compared outright without proper admiration for lots of edge cases that make the argument probably too loose for you to use the evidence that you did.