I mostly just mean what would stop one from saying e.g. “in the sleeping beauty experiment, the possible outcomes are that she’s in one of this set of possible worlds”. The well-founded thing is potentially one such reason, but I didn’t see anything from you about what principle I should use to notice this sort of thing besides that it’s just too hard for our poor human brains. That’s not really compelling since probability theory at scale is not tractable, yet we still find it useful as a guiding star.
The logical uncertainty part is also unconvincing. Digits of irrational numbers is one of most straightforward cases, so walking through that and saying “Mystery solved.” feels like you’re glossing over what actually makes it hard. Which I would say are things like logical self-reference, and formalizing how exactly computational updates work including the weird edge cases.
Often, the solution to problems in a concept is to come up with a better version of the concept, but that doesn’t feel like the point you were making.
Yeah, the possible outcomes, thank you.
I mostly just mean what would stop one from saying e.g. “in the sleeping beauty experiment, the possible outcomes are that she’s in one of this set of possible worlds”. The well-founded thing is potentially one such reason, but I didn’t see anything from you about what principle I should use to notice this sort of thing besides that it’s just too hard for our poor human brains. That’s not really compelling since probability theory at scale is not tractable, yet we still find it useful as a guiding star.
The logical uncertainty part is also unconvincing. Digits of irrational numbers is one of most straightforward cases, so walking through that and saying “Mystery solved.” feels like you’re glossing over what actually makes it hard. Which I would say are things like logical self-reference, and formalizing how exactly computational updates work including the weird edge cases.
Often, the solution to problems in a concept is to come up with a better version of the concept, but that doesn’t feel like the point you were making.