There appears to be some substance in the disagreement.
Suppose that there are many different ‘metabolic’ types of people, and different diets work with different efficacies for these different types. Perhaps any diet works well with a small subset of people (we already know some people don’t need to diet). Perhaps particular diets work well with certain subsets of people. Maybe a particular diet works extremely well for one subset, in that they lose weight and keep it off, whereas it only works moderately well for others (they gain the weight back or must combine different diets).
Assuming this is true, I don’t see how it contradicts anything I have said.
Do you dispute any of the following:
The vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on;
In general, the central and essential problem of successful dieting is dealing with the problem of difficult-to-resist urges;
Taubes’ approach is not a general solution to this problem.
Yes, I dispute with the first point. In any case, you can’t infer this from figure 2.
But that wasn’t my initial point. My initial point, asked in a different way, is what fraction of people would a diet have to be effective for, for you to say that it works “at all”? This is a substantive question, not just semantics, because I would like to convince that an expectation of 100% is not reasonable—rather 20 or even 10% would be quite good.
But that wasn’t my initial point. My initial point, asked in a different way, is what fraction of people would a diet have to be effective for, for you to say that it works “at all”?
I’m not sure, since I generally don’t use “at all” in positive sentences. Besides, it’s just a question of semantics.
This is a substantive question, not just semantics, because I would like to convince that an expectation of 100% is not reasonable—rather 20 or even 10% would be quite good.
Well it depends on how you define “reasonable” or “good.” In terms of deciding whether a diet is worth trying, a 10% success rate might make it worthwhile. But that’s not what we’re talking about—we’re talking about whether Taubes’ underlying model is correct or not. If his model is correct, one would expect a substantially higher success rate.
Yes, I dispute with the first point.
Well let’s quantify things. I assert that weight loss recidivism rates are well over 80%. What’s your estimate of the percentage?
I assert that weight loss recidivism rates are well over 80%. What’s your estimate of the percentage?
I expect that it is very high also. I think the situation could be better if we understood more.
-- we’re talking about whether Taubes’ underlying model is correct or not. If his model is correct, one would expect a substantially higher success rate.
From skimming through the posts, I’m not sure what Taubes’ underlying model is. Would you summarize it in a couple sentences?
In general, the central and essential problem of successful dieting is dealing with the problem of difficult-to-resist urges;
In your opinion, are these urges physical or cultural/psychological? (I think that a diet that does “work” must handle the ones that are physically based.)
I’m not sure, since I generally don’t use “at all” in positive sentences. Besides, it’s just a question of semantics.
You’re right, it works better to consider the negative context. How many people would the diet need to be effective for before you would not say that the diet does not work at all?
I expect that it is very high also. I think the situation could be better if we understood more.
Then why do you dispute my assertion that the vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on?
From skimming through the posts, I’m not sure what Taubes’ underlying model is. Would you summarize it in a couple sentences?
According to Jack, Taubes’ position is that generally speaking, if people eliminate refined carbohydrates (whatever that means) from their diet, they can eat other foods ad libitum and get and stay thin. Apparently Taubes believes that there is some important and dominant interplay between refined carbohydrates, insulin, and body fat. I don’t know the details of his model.
In your opinion, are these urges physical or cultural/psychological?
Physical.
How many people would the diet need to be effective for before you would not say that the diet does not work at all?
Now that I know what Taube’s model is, roughly, I think that it is probably correct, for some small subset of people (but not vanishingly small). I think a softer version, the effectiveness of a low-carb diet, is true for a larger, significant, but still minority subset of the population. It doesn’t matter what I think though – my point is the qualifier: that a model can be true (or a diet can be effective) for a population subset.
This is why I agree with you that the majority of people will regain their weight—if they are trying a diet at random (like in the study) rather than systematically, and without a working model of how a diet is not a one size fits all type of thing.
It occurs to me that you consider the regaining of weight as evidence that his model doesn’t work, because he also said you could eat as much as you want and stay thin. But there may be some people for whom this is true, even within the study sample. It would be useful to see the individual data.
Now that I know what Taube’s model is, roughly, I think that it is probably correct, for some small subset of people (but not vanishingly small).
Assuming that’s true, it doesn’t contradict what I have said. In fact, now that you concede that the vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on, it seems you do not dispute any of my basic points.
I rather suspect that what’s been presented to you has been made out of straw.
Take that up with Jack.
Me:
But anyway, you seem to be saying that, according to Taubes, if you simply avoid eating refined carbohydrates, you can eat other foods ad libitum and avoid obesity. Is that pretty much it?
Assuming this is true, I don’t see how it contradicts anything I have said.
Do you dispute any of the following:
The vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on;
In general, the central and essential problem of successful dieting is dealing with the problem of difficult-to-resist urges;
Taubes’ approach is not a general solution to this problem.
Yes, I dispute with the first point. In any case, you can’t infer this from figure 2.
But that wasn’t my initial point. My initial point, asked in a different way, is what fraction of people would a diet have to be effective for, for you to say that it works “at all”? This is a substantive question, not just semantics, because I would like to convince that an expectation of 100% is not reasonable—rather 20 or even 10% would be quite good.
I’m not sure, since I generally don’t use “at all” in positive sentences. Besides, it’s just a question of semantics.
Well it depends on how you define “reasonable” or “good.” In terms of deciding whether a diet is worth trying, a 10% success rate might make it worthwhile. But that’s not what we’re talking about—we’re talking about whether Taubes’ underlying model is correct or not. If his model is correct, one would expect a substantially higher success rate.
Well let’s quantify things. I assert that weight loss recidivism rates are well over 80%. What’s your estimate of the percentage?
I expect that it is very high also. I think the situation could be better if we understood more.
From skimming through the posts, I’m not sure what Taubes’ underlying model is. Would you summarize it in a couple sentences?
In your opinion, are these urges physical or cultural/psychological? (I think that a diet that does “work” must handle the ones that are physically based.)
You’re right, it works better to consider the negative context. How many people would the diet need to be effective for before you would not say that the diet does not work at all?
Then why do you dispute my assertion that the vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on?
According to Jack, Taubes’ position is that generally speaking, if people eliminate refined carbohydrates (whatever that means) from their diet, they can eat other foods ad libitum and get and stay thin. Apparently Taubes believes that there is some important and dominant interplay between refined carbohydrates, insulin, and body fat. I don’t know the details of his model.
Physical.
In what context?
Now that I know what Taube’s model is, roughly, I think that it is probably correct, for some small subset of people (but not vanishingly small). I think a softer version, the effectiveness of a low-carb diet, is true for a larger, significant, but still minority subset of the population. It doesn’t matter what I think though – my point is the qualifier: that a model can be true (or a diet can be effective) for a population subset.
This is why I agree with you that the majority of people will regain their weight—if they are trying a diet at random (like in the study) rather than systematically, and without a working model of how a diet is not a one size fits all type of thing.
It occurs to me that you consider the regaining of weight as evidence that his model doesn’t work, because he also said you could eat as much as you want and stay thin. But there may be some people for whom this is true, even within the study sample. It would be useful to see the individual data.
Assuming that’s true, it doesn’t contradict what I have said. In fact, now that you concede that the vast majority of people end up regaining regardless of the diet they are on, it seems you do not dispute any of my basic points.
I rather suspect that what’s been presented to you has been made out of straw.
Take that up with Jack.
Me:
Jack:
Link:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/je4/critiquing_gary_taubes_part_2_atkins_redux/abjs?context=1#comments