Take Russel’s chicken for example (The chicken is raised well and fed every day by a farmer, who suddenly, on October 8th, 2007 wrings the chickens neck and plucks its feathers out), it had no reason to run away on October 1st even though that would save its life: It would be a superstitious irrational chicken that ran away on the first of October for no real reason
There are many days on which it could be killed, and these events are mutually exclusive, so any particular detail will probably be false unless justified by evidence. Likewise for means of death, who will do the killing, and so on.
A much simpler hypothesis than “The farmer will kill the chicken, AND it will be on day X, where X is a day in October,” is a similar hypothesis without the conjunction: “The farmer will kill the chicken.”
“The farmer will never kill the chicken” is identical to “The farmer will not kill the chicken today AND the farmer will not kill the chicken tomorrow AND he farmer will not kill the chicken the following day...” This has many conjunctions, and consequently many opportunities to be wrong.
There are many days on which it could be killed, and these events are mutually exclusive, so any particular detail will probably be false unless justified by evidence. Likewise for means of death, who will do the killing, and so on.
A much simpler hypothesis than “The farmer will kill the chicken, AND it will be on day X, where X is a day in October,” is a similar hypothesis without the conjunction: “The farmer will kill the chicken.”
“The farmer will never kill the chicken” is identical to “The farmer will not kill the chicken today AND the farmer will not kill the chicken tomorrow AND he farmer will not kill the chicken the following day...” This has many conjunctions, and consequently many opportunities to be wrong.