The other problem with Aumann’s agreement theorem is that it’s often applied too broadly. It should say, “Honest rational agents should never agree to disagree on matters of fact.” What to do about those facts is definitely up for disagreement, insofar as two honest, rational agents may value wildly different things.
An earlier draft actually specified ”… on questions of fact”, but I deleted that phrase because I didn’t think it was making the exposition stronger. (Omit needless words!) People who understand the fact/value distinction, instrumental goals, &c. usually don’t have trouble “relativizing” policy beliefs. (Even if I don’t want to maximize paperclips, I can still have a lawful discussion about what the paperclip-maximizing thing to do would be.)
I understand the point about omitting needless words, but I think the words are needed in this case. I think there’s a danger here of Aumann’s agreement theorem being misused to prolong disagreements when those disagreements are on matters of values and future actions rather than on the present state of the world. This is especially true in “hot” topics (like politics, religion, etc) where matters of fact and matters of value are closely intertwined.
The other problem with Aumann’s agreement theorem is that it’s often applied too broadly. It should say, “Honest rational agents should never agree to disagree on matters of fact.” What to do about those facts is definitely up for disagreement, insofar as two honest, rational agents may value wildly different things.
An earlier draft actually specified ”… on questions of fact”, but I deleted that phrase because I didn’t think it was making the exposition stronger. (Omit needless words!) People who understand the fact/value distinction, instrumental goals, &c. usually don’t have trouble “relativizing” policy beliefs. (Even if I don’t want to maximize paperclips, I can still have a lawful discussion about what the paperclip-maximizing thing to do would be.)
I understand the point about omitting needless words, but I think the words are needed in this case. I think there’s a danger here of Aumann’s agreement theorem being misused to prolong disagreements when those disagreements are on matters of values and future actions rather than on the present state of the world. This is especially true in “hot” topics (like politics, religion, etc) where matters of fact and matters of value are closely intertwined.