If your analysis of the game theory of the situation is correct, we would expect that the military occasionally makes concessions to share power, but also violently reasserts their full control when they thinks it’s necessary. Do you see any way for the country to break out of that cycle?
For example, how effective do you think new international sanctions will be at curbing the violence?
There are a couple of ways out. There’s an unusual cohesion in the military currently, which allows the military to pull this off. Normally military regimes are unstable because even a small faction can threaten a civil war and force a regime change. So if the current generation dies -or- becomes dependent on their intelligence agency -or- a new officer faction things change. The new faction may prefer a return to the barracks, and change the whole system.
The western sanctions do not matter. Western investment, aid and loan forgiveness do matter, but no enough to stop the violence.
I’m looking forward to following this!
If your analysis of the game theory of the situation is correct, we would expect that the military occasionally makes concessions to share power, but also violently reasserts their full control when they thinks it’s necessary. Do you see any way for the country to break out of that cycle?
For example, how effective do you think new international sanctions will be at curbing the violence?
US: U.S. To Impose Sanctions On Myanmar Military Officials Over Coup : NPR
UK: UK announces further sanctions against Myanmar generals—ABC News (go.com)
EU: EU agrees to sanctions on Russia crackdown and Myanmar coup | The Japan Times
There are a couple of ways out. There’s an unusual cohesion in the military currently, which allows the military to pull this off. Normally military regimes are unstable because even a small faction can threaten a civil war and force a regime change. So if the current generation dies -or- becomes dependent on their intelligence agency -or- a new officer faction things change. The new faction may prefer a return to the barracks, and change the whole system.
The western sanctions do not matter. Western investment, aid and loan forgiveness do matter, but no enough to stop the violence.