I seem to have explained myself poorly. You are effectively restating the commonly held (on LessWrong) views that I was attempting to originally address, so I will try to be more clear.
I don’t understand why you would use a particular fixed standard for “human level”. It seems to be arbitrary, and it would be more sensible to use the level of human at the time when a given AGI was developed. You yourself say as much in your second paragraph (“more capable than its creators at the time of its inception”). Since IA rate determines the capabilities of the AIs creators, then a faster rate of IA than AI would mean that the event of a more capable AGI would never occur.
If a self-modifying AGI is less capable than its creators at the time of its inception, then it will be unable to FOOM, from the perspective of its creators, both because they would be able to develop a better AI in a shorter time than an AI could improve itself, and because if they were developing IA at a greater pace they would advance faster than the AGI that they had developed. Given the same intelligence and rate of work, an easier problem will see more progress. Therefore, if IA is given equal or greater rate of work than AI, and it happens to be an easier problem, then humans would FOOM before AI did. A FOOM doesn’t feel like a FOOM from the perspective of the one experiencing it though.
Your final point makes sense, in that it address the point that the probability of the first fast takeoff being in the AI field may be larger than the IA field, or in that AI is an easier problem. I fail to see why a software problem is inherently easier than a biology or engineering problem though. A fundamental breakthrough in software is just as unlikely as a hardware, and there are more paths to success for IA than AI that are currently being pursued, only one of which is a man-machine interface.
I considered being a bit snarky and posting each of your statements as direct opposites (IE all that matters is if a self modifying human becomes more capable than an AI at the time of its augmentation), but I feel like that would convey the wrong message. The dismissive response genuinely confuses me, but I’m making the assumption that my poor organization has made my point too vague.
It’s not an arbitrary reference point. For a singularity/AI-goes-FOOM event to occur, it needs to have sufficient intelligence and capability to modify itself in a recursive self-improvement process. A chimpanzee is not smart enough to do this. We’ve posited that at least some human beings are capable of creating a more powerful intelligence either though AGI or IA. Therefore the important cutoff where a FOOM event becomes possible is somewhere in-between those two reference levels (the chimpanzee and the circa 2013 rationalist AGI/IA researcher).
Despite my careless phrasing, this isn’t some floating standard that depends on circumstances (having to be smarter than your creators). An AGI or IA simply has to meet some objective minimum level of rationalist and technological capability to start the recursive self-improvement process. The problem is our understanding of the nature of intelligence is not developed enough to predict where that hard cutoff is, so we’re resorting to making qualitative judgements. We think we are capable of starting a singularity event either through AGI or IA means. Therefore anything smarter than we are (“superhuman”) would be equally capable. This is a sufficient, but not necessary requirement—making humans smarter though IA doesn’t mean that an AGI suddenly has to be that much smarter to start its own recursive self-improvement cycle.
My point about software was that an AGI FOOM could happen today. There are datacenters at Google and research supercomputers that are powerful enough to run a recursively improving “artificial scientist” AGI. But IA technology to the level of being able to go super-critical basically requires molecular nanotechnology or equivalently powerful technology (to replace neurons) and/or mind uploading. You won’t get an IA FOOM until you can remove the limitations of biological wetware, but these technologies are at best multiple decades away.
I seem to have explained myself poorly. You are effectively restating the commonly held (on LessWrong) views that I was attempting to originally address, so I will try to be more clear.
I don’t understand why you would use a particular fixed standard for “human level”. It seems to be arbitrary, and it would be more sensible to use the level of human at the time when a given AGI was developed. You yourself say as much in your second paragraph (“more capable than its creators at the time of its inception”). Since IA rate determines the capabilities of the AIs creators, then a faster rate of IA than AI would mean that the event of a more capable AGI would never occur.
If a self-modifying AGI is less capable than its creators at the time of its inception, then it will be unable to FOOM, from the perspective of its creators, both because they would be able to develop a better AI in a shorter time than an AI could improve itself, and because if they were developing IA at a greater pace they would advance faster than the AGI that they had developed. Given the same intelligence and rate of work, an easier problem will see more progress. Therefore, if IA is given equal or greater rate of work than AI, and it happens to be an easier problem, then humans would FOOM before AI did. A FOOM doesn’t feel like a FOOM from the perspective of the one experiencing it though.
Your final point makes sense, in that it address the point that the probability of the first fast takeoff being in the AI field may be larger than the IA field, or in that AI is an easier problem. I fail to see why a software problem is inherently easier than a biology or engineering problem though. A fundamental breakthrough in software is just as unlikely as a hardware, and there are more paths to success for IA than AI that are currently being pursued, only one of which is a man-machine interface.
I considered being a bit snarky and posting each of your statements as direct opposites (IE all that matters is if a self modifying human becomes more capable than an AI at the time of its augmentation), but I feel like that would convey the wrong message. The dismissive response genuinely confuses me, but I’m making the assumption that my poor organization has made my point too vague.
It’s not an arbitrary reference point. For a singularity/AI-goes-FOOM event to occur, it needs to have sufficient intelligence and capability to modify itself in a recursive self-improvement process. A chimpanzee is not smart enough to do this. We’ve posited that at least some human beings are capable of creating a more powerful intelligence either though AGI or IA. Therefore the important cutoff where a FOOM event becomes possible is somewhere in-between those two reference levels (the chimpanzee and the circa 2013 rationalist AGI/IA researcher).
Despite my careless phrasing, this isn’t some floating standard that depends on circumstances (having to be smarter than your creators). An AGI or IA simply has to meet some objective minimum level of rationalist and technological capability to start the recursive self-improvement process. The problem is our understanding of the nature of intelligence is not developed enough to predict where that hard cutoff is, so we’re resorting to making qualitative judgements. We think we are capable of starting a singularity event either through AGI or IA means. Therefore anything smarter than we are (“superhuman”) would be equally capable. This is a sufficient, but not necessary requirement—making humans smarter though IA doesn’t mean that an AGI suddenly has to be that much smarter to start its own recursive self-improvement cycle.
My point about software was that an AGI FOOM could happen today. There are datacenters at Google and research supercomputers that are powerful enough to run a recursively improving “artificial scientist” AGI. But IA technology to the level of being able to go super-critical basically requires molecular nanotechnology or equivalently powerful technology (to replace neurons) and/or mind uploading. You won’t get an IA FOOM until you can remove the limitations of biological wetware, but these technologies are at best multiple decades away.