I think we’ve already found a type of problem where bayesian updating breaks. Namely, all the anthropic problems that UDT solves. (UDT doesn’t say that bayes gives the wrong answer in those cases, but it does say that asking for a probability is the wrong question.)
I think we’ve already found a type of problem where bayesian updating breaks. Namely, all the anthropic problems that UDT solves. (UDT doesn’t say that bayes gives the wrong answer in those cases, but it does say that asking for a probability is the wrong question.)