You cannot predict a black swan. That’s why it can screw up your expectation.
However, once you have a black swan you’d be an irrational fool not to include it in your expectation.
That’s the point. That’s why theories get updated—new data that nobody was aware of before does not match expectations. This new evidence adjusts the probability that the theory was correct, and it gets thrown out if a different theory now has a higher probability in light of the new evidence.
This is not a shortcoming of Bayes Theorem, it’s a shortcoming of observation. That you should certainly be aware of. I.e. “I might not have all the facts.”
You cannot predict a black swan. That’s why it can screw up your expectation.
However, once you have a black swan you’d be an irrational fool not to include it in your expectation.
That’s the point. That’s why theories get updated—new data that nobody was aware of before does not match expectations. This new evidence adjusts the probability that the theory was correct, and it gets thrown out if a different theory now has a higher probability in light of the new evidence.
This is not a shortcoming of Bayes Theorem, it’s a shortcoming of observation. That you should certainly be aware of. I.e. “I might not have all the facts.”