One minor correction, Eliezer: the link to your essay uses the text “An Intuitive Expectation of Bayesian Reasoning.” I think you titled that essay “An Intuitive EXPLANATION of Bayesian Reasoning.” (I am 99.9999% sure of this, and would therefore pay especial attention to any evidence inconsistent with this proposition.)
One minor correction, Eliezer: the link to your essay uses the text “An Intuitive Expectation of Bayesian Reasoning.” I think you titled that essay “An Intuitive EXPLANATION of Bayesian Reasoning.” (I am 99.9999% sure of this, and would therefore pay especial attention to any evidence inconsistent with this proposition.)