you can’t possibly expect the resulting game plan to shift your beliefs (on average) in a particular direction.
But you can act to change the probability distribution of your future beliefs (just not its mean). That’s the entire point of testing a belief. If you have a 50% belief that a ball is under a certain cup, then by lifting the cup, you can be certain than your future belief will be in the set {0%,100%} (with equal probability for 0 and 100, hence the same mean as now).
Getting the right shape of the probability distribution of future belief is the whole skill in testing a hypothesis.
you can’t possibly expect the resulting game plan to shift your beliefs (on average) in a particular direction.
But you can act to change the probability distribution of your future beliefs (just not its mean). That’s the entire point of testing a belief. If you have a 50% belief that a ball is under a certain cup, then by lifting the cup, you can be certain than your future belief will be in the set {0%,100%} (with equal probability for 0 and 100, hence the same mean as now).
Getting the right shape of the probability distribution of future belief is the whole skill in testing a hypothesis.