Barkley, you don’t realize that Bayes’s Theorem is precisely what describes the normative update in beliefs over time? That this is the whole point of Bayes’s Theorem?
Before black swans were observed, no one expected to encounter a black swan, and everyone expected to encounter another white swan on occasion. A black swan is huge evidence against, a white swan is tiny additional evidence for. Had they been normative, the two quantities would have balanced exactly.
I’m not sure what to say here. Maybe point to Probability Theory: The Logic of Science or A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation? I don’t know where this misunderstanding is coming from, but I’m learning a valuable lesson in how much Bayesian algebra someone can know without realizing which material phenomena it describes.
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Barkley, you don’t realize that Bayes’s Theorem is precisely what describes the normative update in beliefs over time? That this is the whole point of Bayes’s Theorem?
Before black swans were observed, no one expected to encounter a black swan, and everyone expected to encounter another white swan on occasion. A black swan is huge evidence against, a white swan is tiny additional evidence for. Had they been normative, the two quantities would have balanced exactly.
I’m not sure what to say here. Maybe point to Probability Theory: The Logic of Science or A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation? I don’t know where this misunderstanding is coming from, but I’m learning a valuable lesson in how much Bayesian algebra someone can know without realizing which material phenomena it describes.