I suspect the AI Futures Model modestly underestimates takeoff speeds and one-time acceleration effects due to effectively acting as though AI speed and quantity don’t matter outside of coding automation.
On the other hand, doesn’t the Forethought model assume a Cobb-Douglas production function? If the goal is to figure out how far a one-time speedup from automating AI R&D takes you, the AI Futures Model seems better since it models (automated labor, experiment compute) complementarities in more detail?
On the other hand, doesn’t the Forethought model assume a Cobb-Douglas production function? If the goal is to figure out how far a one-time speedup from automating AI R&D takes you, the AI Futures Model seems better since it models (automated labor, experiment compute) complementarities in more detail?