I absolutely loved the section about Decision Theory. Throughout this crisis, even way before the war began, the narrative in the West has been “De-escalate tensions with Russia”, which is just an euphemism for “We are open to blackmail”. Fortunately we essentially pulled a “reverse-bluff”, where we first showed weakness in the lead-up and then flipped the table with regard to sanctions and military aid once the shooting started. Better late than never I suppose, but I still hold our weakness, our so-called de-escalatory stance responsible for the bloodshed that is happening now.
I absolutely loved the section about Decision Theory. Throughout this crisis, even way before the war began, the narrative in the West has been “De-escalate tensions with Russia”, which is just an euphemism for “We are open to blackmail”. Fortunately we essentially pulled a “reverse-bluff”, where we first showed weakness in the lead-up and then flipped the table with regard to sanctions and military aid once the shooting started. Better late than never I suppose, but I still hold our weakness, our so-called de-escalatory stance responsible for the bloodshed that is happening now.
I didn’t downvote, btw, but isn’t this kinda like WW2 started?
Hitler: “Can I have Poland?”
West: “We would be concerned.”
Hitler: “Ah, is that all? Works for me.” (attacks Poland)
West: “Uhm, by ‘concerned’ we actually meant that this time we would attack you.”
No, it was the opposite of that.
Hitler: “Can I have Poland?”
West: “No. If you invade Poland, we will fight you.”
Hitler: “Whatever, lol.” (attacks Poland)
West: “Uhm, by ‘fight you’, we actually meant formally declare war but not actually attack you.”