This means that if a 1400 plays a 1500, the 1500 should win about 30% more than the 1400. Totally normal thing that happens all the time.
It also means that if a one-million Elo AI plays a one-million-one-hundred Elo AI, the one-million-one-hundred should win 30% more than the one-million. This is completely absurd, because actual superintelligences are just going to draw each other 100% of the time. Ergo, there can never be a one-million Elo chess engine.
It’s like chess has a ceiling, where as you get close to that ceiling all the games become draws and you can’t rise further. The ceiling is where all the superintelligences play, but the location of the ceiling is just a function of the rules of chess, not a function of how smart the superintelligences are. Magnus Carlsen is closer to the ceiling than he is to the median human’s level, which can be taken as merely a statement about how good he is at chess relative to its rules.
In the game “reality,” there’s probably still a ceiling, but that ceiling is so high that we don’t expect any AIs that haven’t turned the Earth into computronium to be anywhere near it.
This is completely absurd, because actual superintelligences are just going to draw each other 100% of the time. Ergo, there can never be a one-million Elo chess engine.
Do you have some idea of where the ceiling might be, that you can say that with confidence?
Just looking at this, seems like research in chess has slowed down. Makes sense. But did we actually check if we were near a chess capabilities ceiling before we slowed down? I’m wondering if seeing how far we can get above human performance could give us some data about limits to superintelligence..
Do you mean win the game in a fair match? In that case, sure, each player adding intelligence gives them in an advantage.
But to show how it’s diminishing returns: can any chess algorithm beat an average human player who gets an extra queen? 2 extra queens? Intelligence doesn’t necessarily translate to real world ability to win unfair matchups. Sometimes a loss is inevitable no matter the action taken.
Chess is a bad example.
Here’s a useful rule of thumb: Every 100 Elo is supposed to give you a 30% edge. Or play around with this: https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html
This means that if a 1400 plays a 1500, the 1500 should win about 30% more than the 1400. Totally normal thing that happens all the time.
It also means that if a one-million Elo AI plays a one-million-one-hundred Elo AI, the one-million-one-hundred should win 30% more than the one-million. This is completely absurd, because actual superintelligences are just going to draw each other 100% of the time. Ergo, there can never be a one-million Elo chess engine.
It’s like chess has a ceiling, where as you get close to that ceiling all the games become draws and you can’t rise further. The ceiling is where all the superintelligences play, but the location of the ceiling is just a function of the rules of chess, not a function of how smart the superintelligences are. Magnus Carlsen is closer to the ceiling than he is to the median human’s level, which can be taken as merely a statement about how good he is at chess relative to its rules.
In the game “reality,” there’s probably still a ceiling, but that ceiling is so high that we don’t expect any AIs that haven’t turned the Earth into computronium to be anywhere near it.
Do you have some idea of where the ceiling might be, that you can say that with confidence?
Just looking at this, seems like research in chess has slowed down. Makes sense. But did we actually check if we were near a chess capabilities ceiling before we slowed down? I’m wondering if seeing how far we can get above human performance could give us some data about limits to superintelligence..
Do you mean win the game in a fair match? In that case, sure, each player adding intelligence gives them in an advantage.
But to show how it’s diminishing returns: can any chess algorithm beat an average human player who gets an extra queen? 2 extra queens? Intelligence doesn’t necessarily translate to real world ability to win unfair matchups. Sometimes a loss is inevitable no matter the action taken.