It’s very obviously better than 50% and worse than 20%, and the worst case scenario is 100%
Plausibly, the best case scenario is also 100%.
This is very sensible but consider: The *funniest* way to solve this problem would be to find a jurisdiction, perhaps outside the USA, which will let Claude take the bar exam and legally recognize it as a lawyer.
This seems to be the natural response to all professional licensing concerns, but oftentimes states do not necessarily have to recognize one another’s professional licenses. Not sure how that works for lawyers in particular.
Biggest epistemic divide I’ve seen in a while.
Yep. Plus, I still see otherwise intelligent people do things like quoting the Tower of Hanoi paper as evidence that ‘models are bad at multistep reasoning.’
Plausibly, the best case scenario is also 100%.
This seems to be the natural response to all professional licensing concerns, but oftentimes states do not necessarily have to recognize one another’s professional licenses. Not sure how that works for lawyers in particular.
Yep. Plus, I still see otherwise intelligent people do things like quoting the Tower of Hanoi paper as evidence that ‘models are bad at multistep reasoning.’