It’s called Unexpected hanging paradox and I linked to it in my sketch of the solution to the one-off dilemma. I agree, the same problem seems to be at work here, and it’s orthogonal to two-step argument that takes us from mutual cooperation to mutual defection. You need to mark the performance of complete policies established in the model at the start of the experiment, and not reason backwards, justifying the actions that could have changed the consequences by inevitability of consequences. Again, I’m not quite sure how it all ties together.
Silas,
It’s called Unexpected hanging paradox and I linked to it in my sketch of the solution to the one-off dilemma. I agree, the same problem seems to be at work here, and it’s orthogonal to two-step argument that takes us from mutual cooperation to mutual defection. You need to mark the performance of complete policies established in the model at the start of the experiment, and not reason backwards, justifying the actions that could have changed the consequences by inevitability of consequences. Again, I’m not quite sure how it all ties together.