Keep in mind that the only things that matter are things that need to get done before AGI. AGI can do the rest.
I acknowledge that there exist bets for long timelines, but I also think those things should be discounted compared to how promising they would be under a 20 year AGI timeline.
I also acknowledge that there’ll maybe be a centaur period of around 1 year after AGI. I don’t think this is that important a consideration as it’s unclear to me what it implies that the rest of the scenario doesn’t.
While I agree with this directionally, I’d warn people that you’d need both high confidence and also very good timing skills to make use of this well, rather than totally crashing, and also this will require reasonably good mental models on what you can safely assume AI does, and what AI won’t be able to do over different time rates, so this advice only really has use for people already deeply thinking about AI.
While I agree with this directionally, I’d warn people that you’d need both high confidence and also very good timing skills to make use of this well, rather than totally crashing, and also this will require reasonably good mental models on what you can safely assume AI does, and what AI won’t be able to do over different time rates, so this advice only really has use for people already deeply thinking about AI.