I agree with this analysis. I think we probably have somewhat better odds on the current path, particularly if we can hold onto faithful CoT.
I expect some one major changes of continuous learning, but CoT and most of the LLM paradigm may stay pretty similar up to takeoff.
Steve Byrnes’ Foom & Doom is a pretty good guess at what we get if the current paradigm doesn’t pan out.
I agree with this analysis. I think we probably have somewhat better odds on the current path, particularly if we can hold onto faithful CoT.
I expect some one major changes of continuous learning, but CoT and most of the LLM paradigm may stay pretty similar up to takeoff.
Steve Byrnes’ Foom & Doom is a pretty good guess at what we get if the current paradigm doesn’t pan out.