I searched herd immunity in the UK government report you referenced and found the following line
Serology studies suggest that ~5-10% of the UK population has been infected to date, with levels up to 15% in some areas, but infection levels of approximately 70% may be required to achieve herd immunity, bearing in mind that the degree to which immunity is conferred by past infection is still unknown (see section 3.1.2). (page 12)
That comment looks exaclty like the supposed strawman Zvi is putting up. Is there some reading between the lines explanation that contradicts their direct statement? And if there is, why would it matter more than their direct statement.
I generally do believe your point that modelers accept the broader evidence on immunity much more than public health officials and pundits.
It’s clearly the case that the public line about 70% herd immunity is still out there, but I think my broader point is served by that report. They have the obligatory ‘herd immunity is reached at 70% and there may be no immunity conferred’ caveat but then the actual model implies that in a worst case scenario 30% of the UK gets infected. You might speculate that they consulted the modellers for the model but not for the rest of it.
I searched herd immunity in the UK government report you referenced and found the following line
That comment looks exaclty like the supposed strawman Zvi is putting up. Is there some reading between the lines explanation that contradicts their direct statement? And if there is, why would it matter more than their direct statement.
I generally do believe your point that modelers accept the broader evidence on immunity much more than public health officials and pundits.
It’s clearly the case that the public line about 70% herd immunity is still out there, but I think my broader point is served by that report. They have the obligatory ‘herd immunity is reached at 70% and there may be no immunity conferred’ caveat but then the actual model implies that in a worst case scenario 30% of the UK gets infected. You might speculate that they consulted the modellers for the model but not for the rest of it.