Regarding tractability, I think there’s probably considerably more tractability in the reprogenetics area than you’re aware of. (Though of course, IDK how much tractability you think there is, and I have a lot of uncertainty about the area.) I think there’s substantial gridlock about the area, which implies that progress is locally significantly more difficult than it may appear at first, but also that progress is globally significantly easier than it may appear at second. On a more technical level, we’re actually pretty close to parents being able to give their future children very high intelligence in expectation, like measured in several years rather than several decades conditional on “a lot” of resources going into the field (think order of a billion dollars and substantial bio research talent). Some information on that is here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2w6hjptanQ3cDyDw7/methods-for-strong-human-germline-engineering and I’m usually available for calls to talk through some of this (though I’m only informed about some parts of the problem).
(I have some substantial upside uncertainty about other methods that could be developed faster, though I’m skeptical of them getting large gains.)
Thanks!
Regarding tractability, I think there’s probably considerably more tractability in the reprogenetics area than you’re aware of. (Though of course, IDK how much tractability you think there is, and I have a lot of uncertainty about the area.) I think there’s substantial gridlock about the area, which implies that progress is locally significantly more difficult than it may appear at first, but also that progress is globally significantly easier than it may appear at second. On a more technical level, we’re actually pretty close to parents being able to give their future children very high intelligence in expectation, like measured in several years rather than several decades conditional on “a lot” of resources going into the field (think order of a billion dollars and substantial bio research talent). Some information on that is here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2w6hjptanQ3cDyDw7/methods-for-strong-human-germline-engineering and I’m usually available for calls to talk through some of this (though I’m only informed about some parts of the problem).
(I have some substantial upside uncertainty about other methods that could be developed faster, though I’m skeptical of them getting large gains.)