This raises a meta-question: Can one really hope to do better by this method than by simply following the expert consensus on the issue? Are the techniques presented on this site powerful enough to allow interested non-experts to do a better job in evaluating a complicated issue than expert analysts?
Are the techniques presented on this site powerful enough to allow interested non-experts to do a better job in evaluating a complicated issue than expert analysts?
No, the experts will do a better job. Actually, I had idealistically envisioned that experts would dominate the discussion while non-experts observed, occasionally bringing forth ideas from their field of expertise.
However, with a smaller group with no critical mass of experts, we may still make some headway in cases when:
(a) It is unclear how to apply an expert opinion. This often happens when the application spans or escapes fields of expertise.
(b) The experts don’t have a consensus. RPOV can figure out how to make decisions that minimize risk when the experts have incomplete or conflicting solutions/​predictions.
Other examples? Particularly, any specific examples when RPOV among non-experts would lead to better solutions than what one non-expert might come up with individually?
This raises a meta-question: Can one really hope to do better by this method than by simply following the expert consensus on the issue? Are the techniques presented on this site powerful enough to allow interested non-experts to do a better job in evaluating a complicated issue than expert analysts?
No, the experts will do a better job. Actually, I had idealistically envisioned that experts would dominate the discussion while non-experts observed, occasionally bringing forth ideas from their field of expertise.
However, with a smaller group with no critical mass of experts, we may still make some headway in cases when:
(a) It is unclear how to apply an expert opinion. This often happens when the application spans or escapes fields of expertise.
(b) The experts don’t have a consensus. RPOV can figure out how to make decisions that minimize risk when the experts have incomplete or conflicting solutions/​predictions.
Other examples? Particularly, any specific examples when RPOV among non-experts would lead to better solutions than what one non-expert might come up with individually?