Well, even bigger issue with Bayes is how easy it is to get it wrong on graphs in general (which contain loops). Worse than that, what we actually have is uncertain topology. This all should make rational updates much smaller and compartmentalized-looking than some naive idea of ‘updating’ beliefs from one argument, then from the other, and so on.
There’s also a lot of very advanced math related to specifically estimation. E.g. an expected utility would be a huge sum, vast majority of terms in which you do not know. When deciding on some binary action, you have those two sums on both sides of comparison, and you need to estimate the sign of the difference most accurately (which is dramatically not same as summing all available terms), then you need to quantify the expected inaccuracy in your estimate of the sign, and adjust for that. Simply put, its complicated and people who have good working understanding of such concerns can write important textbooks, software, papers, etc. (Which make a lot of difference to the world, as well as make any spin off ‘workshops’ credible). Whereas people who are very far from having any understanding of such can do things like estimating 8 lives saved per dollar donated.
Well, even bigger issue with Bayes is how easy it is to get it wrong on graphs in general (which contain loops). Worse than that, what we actually have is uncertain topology. This all should make rational updates much smaller and compartmentalized-looking than some naive idea of ‘updating’ beliefs from one argument, then from the other, and so on.
There’s also a lot of very advanced math related to specifically estimation. E.g. an expected utility would be a huge sum, vast majority of terms in which you do not know. When deciding on some binary action, you have those two sums on both sides of comparison, and you need to estimate the sign of the difference most accurately (which is dramatically not same as summing all available terms), then you need to quantify the expected inaccuracy in your estimate of the sign, and adjust for that. Simply put, its complicated and people who have good working understanding of such concerns can write important textbooks, software, papers, etc. (Which make a lot of difference to the world, as well as make any spin off ‘workshops’ credible). Whereas people who are very far from having any understanding of such can do things like estimating 8 lives saved per dollar donated.