I had the same issue, and I’m personally not convinced there’s an actual “Bayesian vs frequentist” conflict as framed in the sequences. Both are useful ways of thinking in different scenarios.
To use Emile’s example, there’s a distinction between the probability that you think the millionth digit of pi is even or odd, and whether it really is even or odd. Even though you don’t know the millionth digit offhand, it can be computed and has a definite value, so it really doesn’t matter what you think it is. Saying 50:50, or more generally an equal probability distribution, is in my mind basically the same as saying “I don’t know” (i.e. “I have zero evidence for deciding one way or the other.”)
There’s also a difference between the parity of the millionth digit of pi, and, for example, the wind speed at an arbitrary place and future time. It’s impossible to calculate, so instead you can apply Bayesian methods and estimate a range of values based on prior knowledge, and any historical data you might have access to.
I had the same issue, and I’m personally not convinced there’s an actual “Bayesian vs frequentist” conflict as framed in the sequences. Both are useful ways of thinking in different scenarios.
To use Emile’s example, there’s a distinction between the probability that you think the millionth digit of pi is even or odd, and whether it really is even or odd. Even though you don’t know the millionth digit offhand, it can be computed and has a definite value, so it really doesn’t matter what you think it is. Saying 50:50, or more generally an equal probability distribution, is in my mind basically the same as saying “I don’t know” (i.e. “I have zero evidence for deciding one way or the other.”)
There’s also a difference between the parity of the millionth digit of pi, and, for example, the wind speed at an arbitrary place and future time. It’s impossible to calculate, so instead you can apply Bayesian methods and estimate a range of values based on prior knowledge, and any historical data you might have access to.