I rolled a lot of the puts into later expirations, which have become almost worthless. I did cash out or convert into long positions some of them, and made about 10x my initial bet as a result. (In other words I lost about 80% of my paper profits.) It seems like I have a tendency to get out of my bets too late (same thing happened with Bitcoin), which I’ll have to keep in mind in the future. BTW I wrote about some of my other investments/bets recently at https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/g4oGNGwAoDwyMAJSB/how-much-leverage-should-altruists-use/comment/RBXqgYshRhCJsCvWG, in case you’re interested.
Now that April 17 has passed, how much did you end up making on this bet?
I rolled a lot of the puts into later expirations, which have become almost worthless. I did cash out or convert into long positions some of them, and made about 10x my initial bet as a result. (In other words I lost about 80% of my paper profits.) It seems like I have a tendency to get out of my bets too late (same thing happened with Bitcoin), which I’ll have to keep in mind in the future. BTW I wrote about some of my other investments/bets recently at https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/g4oGNGwAoDwyMAJSB/how-much-leverage-should-altruists-use/comment/RBXqgYshRhCJsCvWG, in case you’re interested.
Reporting from the future: Bitcoin has kept going up, so I don’t think you made the mistake of getting out of it too late.
(I’m also confused about why you thought so April 2020, given that bitcoin’s price was pretty high at the time.)