I had a similar thought. Also, in an expected value context it makes sense to pursue actions that succeed when your model is wrong and you are actually closer to the middle of the success curve, because if that’s the case you can increase our chances of survival more easily. In the logarithmic context doing so doesn’t make much sense, since your impact on the logistic odds is the same no matter where on the success curve you are.
Maybe this objective function (and the whole ethos of Death with Dignity) is way to justify working on alignment even if you think our chances of success are close to zero. Personally, I’m not compelled by it.
I had a similar thought. Also, in an expected value context it makes sense to pursue actions that succeed when your model is wrong and you are actually closer to the middle of the success curve, because if that’s the case you can increase our chances of survival more easily. In the logarithmic context doing so doesn’t make much sense, since your impact on the logistic odds is the same no matter where on the success curve you are.
Maybe this objective function (and the whole ethos of Death with Dignity) is way to justify working on alignment even if you think our chances of success are close to zero. Personally, I’m not compelled by it.