The disagreement all comes down to a general averseness to options that have a low probability of being factual, even given that the stakes are high.
I think we get a similar artifact when consider cryonics. Even after accepting materialist notions of identity, feasibility of uploading and present technical capabilities I’m still not on the same page as much of LW. The reason is that I consider my personal prospects for revival to be vanishingly small due to pessimism about my future utility to anyone who might have the resources to sim me. Other LW may put the probability in the same ballpark but then multiple by the nearly unbounded possible utility of a second life and find they should go ahead and sign up. I just don’t seem to be able to take significant action based upon what I consider to be low probabilities.
I actually think AGI is both possible and probable so in this particular example the article speaks to I’m more in the LW camp.
I think we get a similar artifact when consider cryonics. Even after accepting materialist notions of identity, feasibility of uploading and present technical capabilities I’m still not on the same page as much of LW. The reason is that I consider my personal prospects for revival to be vanishingly small due to pessimism about my future utility to anyone who might have the resources to sim me. Other LW may put the probability in the same ballpark but then multiple by the nearly unbounded possible utility of a second life and find they should go ahead and sign up. I just don’t seem to be able to take significant action based upon what I consider to be low probabilities.
I actually think AGI is both possible and probable so in this particular example the article speaks to I’m more in the LW camp.