Many people try to vote “strategically”, by considering which candidate is more “electable”. One of the most important factors in whether someone is “electable” is whether they have received attention from the media and the support of one of the two major parties. Naturally, those organizations put considerable thought into who is electable in making their decision. Ultimately, all arguments for “strategic voting” tend to fall apart. The voters themselves get so little say in why the next president is that the best we can do is just to not vote for nincompoops.
Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych
In Evolutionary Biology or Psychology, a nice-sounding but untested theory is referred to as a “just-so story”, after the stories written by Rudyard Kipling. But, if there is a way to test the theory, people tend to consider it more likely to be correct. This is not a rational tendency.
A Failed Just-So Story
Part of the reason professional evolutionary biologists dislike just-so stories is that many of them are simply wrong.
But There’s Still A Chance, Right?
Sometimes, you calculate the probability of a certain event and find that the number is so unbelievably small that your brain really can’t keep track of how small it is, any more than you can spot an individual grain of sand on a beach from 100 meters off. But, because you’re already thinking about that event enough to calculate the probability of it, it feels like it’s still worth keeping track of. It’s not.
These are the only four I’ve got at the moment. If someone wants to jump ahead and start summarizing more posts it would be very appreciated.
Stop Voting For Nincompoops
Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych
A Failed Just-So Story
But There’s Still A Chance, Right?
These are the only four I’ve got at the moment. If someone wants to jump ahead and start summarizing more posts it would be very appreciated.
I added these. Thanks for writing them.